The underdog has a positive money line. So it's all in units of 100. So anyway, you can take these money lines, and what they do is they shade one of the money lines so that there's a slight imbalance so it isn't a fair bet. That if you bet on both teams you break even.
So when they do that, what they'll do is they'll take 20 points off the underdog line, starting with some number that they think is good for dividing the betting action again. The bookmaker makes a certain profit. And in fact, for a typical baseball bet, the hold percentage will be in the neighborhood of 4%. Similar to point spread bets. So baseball, just betting on a team in baseball, yields about the same profit margin for casinos per dollar bet. and it depends very much on how much money is bet on each team in a game. But anyway, so typically that's what bookmakers make though on baseball betting, somewhere around 4%. Well, if you do that, if the swindler had been making random bets with a 4%, 3.8% house edge for that whole run of $110 million, he would have lost about $4 million. If he actually was using any skill in baseball betting, he might have even done better paypal online casino nz. He might have lost less than $4 million. But you can have skill and still lose money, of course. You can have skill and just do worse than randomness, and because of the odds, you can still go broke. So you can be skillfully bankrupt. But in any event, this guy lost $30 million. So the question is was he being cheated? Well it turns out there's another kind of baseball bet called a parlay bet. Some of you may know what a parlay bet is. Parlay bet just means you bet on a bunch of different events and they all have to happen for you to win. So for example, here's a 14-- and you can do that in any sport-- here's a 14 parlay. You bet that San Francisco beats Florida, Pittsburgh beats Milwaukee, Oakland beats Kansas City, and the Yankees beat Boston. If you make that bet, all those teams have to win in order for you to win your bet, otherwise you lose. So the payoff odds are somewhat high. They're huge payoff odds. In fact, you get the payoff odds by multiplying the probabilities together for winning for each of those teams, roughly speaking. Taking a little bit off for the bookmaker profit. So it turns out that these types of bets are highly profitable if you win, but on the other hand, there's a huge house edge or hold percentage because the casinos don't want to expose themselves to the risk of taking huge parlay bets because of the big payoff odds. So they'll make the odds such that they're not so good for the bettor. So a typical 14 parlay bet, the house edge is between 25% and 30%. The same is true if you make-- if you look at games with high payoff odds, the house edge is always worse, like the State Lottery, for instance. The house edge equivalent is 50%. The State keeps 50% of all the money bet. Keno is another game. If you've seen the game of Keno in a casino, that's a type of lottery. Keno bets typically have a 20% to 30% house edge because you can win a whole lot of money for a $1 bet. So on games like that have very high payoffs with a very low chance of winning, the house edge is typically high. So these 14 parlay bets, this guy was betting 4, 5 and 16 parlay bets generally. So he was exposing the casino to-- he was betting $15,000 a bet, these 14, 15, 16 parlay bets. So any win, he would get hundreds of thousands of dollars. So the online casino was hesitant to take the money on such large bets. They don't usually, so they spread it out around other casinos, so the money trail gets sort of dispersed. And anyway, let's just look at the bottom line. Let's say the house edge is about 27.5%. And that's what this guy was doing was making these parlay bets. And the $110 million bet, you multiply by 27.5%, you get $30 million. And that's exactly what the guy lost. So I'm going to stop with that because we're running out of time, but I will answer questions. Anybody want any other information, just come on up and get it. Thank you very much.
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The first one, that is actually going to miss. She ducks out of the way and begins crawling across the ground as it goes for a second attack. That, however, does hit, it's a 16. That'll do it. So with eight points of bludgeoning damage, it reaches down and slams its fist into her chest, and as it does, she gives out this horrible yelp as it rips into her and begins gnawing into her flesh and pulls away with a mouthful of it and stands up, its eyes scanning the room for the next possible victim. It's going to begin to stalk forward, coming up to that guy.
All right, Yasha, your turn. ASHLEY: Okay. How close am I to them-- I want to give them their weapons. MATT: You're right there. You'd have to-- You're pretty close to everybody. You could distribute-- you could use your action to toss the weapons out to everybody this turn, I'll say. ASHLEY: Okay. I'll pass my weapons out this turn. MATT: Okay, so you'll spend your action throwing them out to the individuals. So your shortsword and crossbow clatter to the ground, and you quickly scramble to grab them. Caleb's dagger falls at his foot. Your staff gets tossed quickly from behind you. Your falchion meets your arm. SAM and MARISHA: Falchion. MATT: All right. That ends Yasha's turn. Fjord, you're up. TRAVIS: Can I run up with the falchion within melee? MATT: You actually rush through Jester's form. You watch the image dissipate as you charge through it and meet up, face-to-face, with this large, gnarled, horrible-looking creature. What are you doing? TRAVIS: Ripping the falchion, can I swing it into the creature? MATT: You may. LAURA: And you get advantage. TRAVIS: I do? Thank god, because that was a one. 18. MATT: 18 hits. Go ahead and roll damage. TRAVIS: Nice. SAM: It's a real fight! MATT: Yeah. TRAVIS: 11. SAM: We've got like a dozen hit points, we'll be okay. MATT: All righty. That ends your turn? All right, you're done. That brings us to Caleb. LIAM: I would like to use my movement to push as far into the crowd as I can. MATT: Okay, going through the crowd is-- LIAM: Half-movement? That's fine, sure. I just want people in front of me. MATT: Push through to about there. You end up pushing a kid out of the way. LIAM: That's great. That's exactly fine with me and I will pull out the diamond and cast Chromatic Orb, and I will send a ball of cold at the creature that Fee-ord-- Fjord-- MATT: All right, go ahead and make a spell attack. LIAM: Yes, here it comes. SAM: Watch out for Fee-ord. (laughter) LIAM: My goodness. That is a 17. MATT: 17 hits. Go ahead and roll damage. LAURA: Isn't Chromatic Orb like a really strong spell? LIAM: No. MATT: There's Prismatic Spray. Chromatic is the starter version. LIAM: That is nine. ALL: Nein! MATT: (German accent) All right, very well done, Caleb. LIAM: (thicker German accent) Now is the part where we dance. MATT: So as you push the child out of the way, turn, putting your pocketed diamond out in front of you, you focus and you watch as this beam of light blue energy streaks past, just barely coasting between a few heads. It slams into this creature, as crystals form where the wound and impact was. It cracks back into place where it was. End of your turn? All right. Nott, you're up. SAM: Okay. Having seen the beautiful dwarven-- girl, was it? Who sang and soothed a monster earlier in the show, I'm going to attempt to sing and soothe this monster. So I step forward and I open my mouth, and I sing, (singing badly) And I will always soothe you! LAURA: Can I shoot an arrow at Nott? LIAM: He's killing the memory of Scanlan. MARISHA: I know, can't let that go. MATT: Make a performance check. SAM: Performance check. Ooh, it's really good. 18, minus three, so that's 15. MATT: Okay. As you're singing out this discordant sound, folks nearby are covering their ears and glancing back and looking in surprise at this strange creature giving off this-- SAM: Does it die? MATT: No. However, it now, after taking a few hits nearby, its red eyes-- or at least one red eye slips over to look in your direction. That's as much of an effect. SAM: Fuck! (laughter) MATT: Do you want to move, or are you going to stay there? SAM: Yes, I'm going to move, and I'm going to dash behind somebody in the crowd, some weak-looking individual. MATT: Okay. You can get behind there. Okay. All right, that ends your turn? LIAM: That's our M.O., baby! MATT: Beau, you're up. MARISHA: Oh shit, okay. To RP my tragic one on the first fucking battle a little bit, I'll turn to everybody and go, guys, no, it's part of the show. Molly said that people die. She was just a claque. Okay. And then I run and I'm going to tackle the zombie guy. Can I see if I can grapple him? MATT: You can certainly, on the first attack. Go for it. Make an athletics check. MARISHA: Just straight athletics. Oh god. Do I keep that? It's not good. (laughter) MARISHA: Seven. MATT: 17. You attempt with your first strike, and the creature just breaks away. Its strength is far more than you imagined it would be from what was originally an elderly-looking frame. MARISHA: I go, oh, fuck that. I don't know if that's true, and I'm going to do a flurry of blows and do two, pop-pop. That's unarmed, right? Pop-pop. MATT: That is correct. MARISHA: I do two, right? MATT: Yes, if you're using your ki point to do that, yes. MARISHA: Yes, I am. Her smile is infectious, and you can't tear your eyes away. You only now realize the tears down your cheeks, but you cannot break your gaze. From the front row of the audience, on the left, a man stands up, his arms outstretched towards her.
His dirtied cloak falls away, his face and skin wracked with age. You see his legs shaking as he stands, his cheeks wet with tears. He shouts (exclaims). His arms drop and clutch his chest. Gurgles a burst of vocal pain once more, and folks nearest to him begin to lean away as he begins to shake. You glance over as the old man yells out once more, as the skin on his arms suddenly begins to tear, the bones splitting from the flesh, writhing, cracking. Dust and blood shake from his wounds as his form swells. Screams begin to ring out from the audience around him, people rising up and running for the exit. Chaos breaks into the room around you. Toya's song abruptly ends, the little girl looking down with fright in her eyes, the devil-toad glancing about worriedly, the half-orc and the fool rushing up beside him to look at the transforming man. The half-orc yells, escorting patrons to the exit, "Everyone! Leave the tent now! Kylre--" As he points to the devil-toad. " --get her to safety." The devil-toad glances up and leaps with a sudden gust of strength to the top and grabs the center pole of the room as it begins to almost quiver to his weight. He grabs the little girl safely under his arm and leaps back down. What are you all doing? LAURA: I invoke Duplicity. MATT: You watch as her form suddenly dissipates into multiple seemingly copies of her form as Jester. TRAVIS: Yasha? We're going to need those weapons back. MARISHA: I turn to Mollymauk and go, man, I thought it was kind of lame at first, but this is awesome! TALIESIN: Everyone get out right now. MARISHA: This isn't part of the show? TRAVIS: Not part of the show. SAM: It's too artsy. MATT: The old man's body stops quaking, his flesh now grey and mangled like an ancient tree trunk. He turns, his eyes blood-red and bulging, his lips curled into a horrifying grimace. The two Crown's Guard begin to try and make their way through the panicked crowd, but the people, like a wave of chaos, are keeping them at bay. I need everyone to roll initiative. (yelling) LIAM: The miniatures come out, guys! TRAVIS: First map! (yelling) MARISHA: I rolled a natural one. SAM: That bodes well. MATT: So you guys, this guy is actually over here. You guys are all up here in the front. LAURA: Oh yeah, we were right in the fucking front row. Look at us! We're so cute! TALIESIN: Oh my god, it's so pretty. SAM: We're all going to die. LIAM: Probably. But then the third campaign begins. LAURA: Yay. SAM: I like the tents and donkeys outside. Amazing. MARISHA: Look, Taliesin, it's a bardo. Oh my god! TALIESIN: No, go for it. Oh boy. MATT: All right, so. 20 to 15? LAURA: 21. MATT: All right. LAURA: Oh, wait, 22. MATT: Nice. 15 to ten? TALIESIN: Ten. SAM: Ten. TRAVIS: 12. ASHLEY: 13. LIAM: 11. MATT: So 13 and then ten and ten? Sorry, 12. So Yasha got 13, then we have Fjord. And then 11. And then we have Nott at ten. And what'd you get? MARISHA: Five. Rolled terribly. MATT: There we go. Okay, so. Top of the round, as this creature turns and glares about in the area, this swollen form over here to the side, that's what remains of the old man who had stood up in the center of the chamber. Jester, you're up first. LAURA: Okay. Well, I'm just going to go for it, all right? I'm going to cast Guiding Bolt on the monster that just appeared. MATT: Okay, as it turns towards you. It's a saving throw, correct? LAURA: Let's find out. You make a ranged spell attack. MATT: Go ahead and roll on that. LAURA: Okay, okay. SAM: Magic, you're using magic. LAURA: Well, it's cocked. It was 20 and then it rolled. SAM: You said cocked. LIAM: You're a cock. LAURA: That's 11 plus-- what do I add to my-- Guiding Bolt, plus five. So 16. MATT: 16 hits. Go ahead and roll damage. LAURA: Yay. 4d6. MATT: Yasha, you're almost on deck. LAURA: Ten, 16, 18, and then any attacks in the future-- the next attack has advantage. MATT: How much damage was that? 2d6, 18? SAM: 4d6, you said. LAURA: Yeah, it was 4d6 radiant damage. So yeah, it was 18. And then I'm going to run the opposite direction away from him, but I'm going to keep my duplicate up there. MATT: Okay, which, for your duplicate, I should go ahead and grab something. TALIESIN: Oh, you've got toys. LAURA: That backpack's almost as big as my dice bag. MATT: Almost. I was like, that's right, you can do this, so I need to pull out-- we'll say for the purposes of this, you're-- we'll put you-- this will be your duplicate, wherever you want to move it from where you are, so she moves there. LAURA: So she's going to stay here. I can't reach that far, but. Oh, shit, sorry. MATT: Just let me know where. There? LAURA: Sorry, I didn't realize it was-- MATT: You can get there. LAURA: Okay, sounds good. MATT: Okay, so that ends your turn. At the top of your turn, this creature closest to one of the people nearby screaming, this young woman who's trying to back away, it just turns toward her and grabs and tries to tear into her with two strikes. These days, online casino has become among the most growing organization places on this planet.
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AuthorTom Diez is a professional gambler and blogger on gambling topics. He writes casino reviews for Casinoslots Gambling Directory. Tom was born in Argentina, he moved to Los Angeles 10 years ago. Tom also likes traveling, extreme sports and Weebly.) ArchivesCategories |